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Pace of Mobile

Two slides from NVIDIA’s presentation at CES (captured by the excellent Anandtech team) were particularly stunning to me in terms of illustrating how quickly the mobile revolution is advancing.

This first slide highlights the main NVIDIA product announcement/claim: that starting with their current-generation product, Tegra K1 (cue NVIDIA PR: it was so advanced that they couldn’t just call the successor Tegra 5 :-)), their mobile graphics architecture would be the same as what they are currently selling for their PC products (Kepler).

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That’s not really a new claim — after all, it had been announced previously that Logan (the comic book inspired codename for Tegra K1) was supposed to have Kepler technology inside. What is interesting is when its presented in the following way:

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According to NVIDIA, it took 8 years for the PC technology that supported the Unreal Engine 3 game engine to make it to smartphones (in and of itself an impressive feat if you think about it), but only two years for Unreal Engine 4.

Obviously, there are a lot of caveats here (this is, after all, a press announcement to drum up excitement) – even if the GPU architecture is 100% the same we have no idea what kind of real-world performance or power consumption we’ll get out of this (so word to the wise: ignore a lot of the “core count” crap, its not really apples-to-apples with anything). But it’s a great indicator of how quickly the smartphone/tablet are usurping the role as the primary computing device for the world and how hard that is pushing the broader technology industry to keep up.

More great content on this (and more) at Anandtech

(Images captured by Anandtech team during NVIDIA CES press conference liveblog)

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Disruptive Innovation in one Chart

There are few examples of disruptive innovation as clear as what happened to Research in Motion/Blackberry, the former giant when it came to smart mobile devices for businesspeople (and a device which was previously super-important to me). Despite a seemingly unassailable market position and huge profits, they were caught off-guard by the more software-and-consumer centric smartphone wave that followed, the result being an astonishing 94% loss in company value in 5 years (HT: Quartz):

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Only the paranoid survive indeed…

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The Marketing Glory of NVIDIA’s Codenames

This is an old tidbit, but nevertheless a good one that has (somehow) never made it to my blog. I’ve mentioned before the private equity consulting world’s penchant for silly project names, but while code names are not rare in the corporate world, more often than not, the names don’t tend to be dull and not be of much use for a company. NVIDIA’s code names, however, are pure marketing glory.

Take NVIDIA’s high performance computing product roadmap (below) – these are products that use the graphics processing capabilities of NVIDIA’s high-end GPUs and turn them into smaller, cheaper, and more power-efficient supercomputing engines which scientists and researchers can use to crunch numbers (check out entries from the Bench Press blog for an idea of what researchers have been able to do with them). How does NVIDIA describe its future roadmap? It uses the names of famous scientists to describe its technology roadmap: Tesla (the great American electrical engineer who helped bring us AC power), Fermi (“the father of the Atomic Bomb”), Kepler (one of the first astronomers to apply physics to astronomy), and Maxwell (the physicist who helped show that electrical, magnetic, and optical phenomena were all linked).

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Who wouldn’t want to do some “high power” research (pun intended) with Maxwell? 🙂

But, what really takes the cake for me are the codenames NVIDIA uses for its smartphone/tablet chips: its Tegra line of products. Instead of scientists, he uses, well, comic book characters (now you know why I love them, right?) :-). For release at the end of this year? Kal-El, or for the uninitiated, that’s the alien name for Superman. After that? Wayne, as in the alter ego for Batman. Then, Logan, as in the name for the X-men Wolverine. And then Stark, as in the alter ego for Iron Man.

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Everybody wants a little Iron Man in their tablet :-).

And, now I know what I’ll name my future secret projects!

(Image credit – CUDA GPU Roadmap) (Image credit – Tegra Roadmap)

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Web 3.0

About a year ago, I met up with Teresa Wu (of My Mom is a Fob and My Dad is a Fob fame). It was our first “Tweetup”, a word used by social media types to refer to meet-up’s between people who had only previously been friends over Twitter. It was a very geeky conversation (and what else would you expect from people who referred to their first face-to-face meeting as a Tweetup?), and at one point the conversation turned to discuss our respective visions of “Web 3.0”, which we loosely defined as what would come after the current also-loosely-defined “Web 2.0” wave of today’s social media websites.

On some level, trying to describe “Web 3.0” is as meaningless as applying the “Web 2.0” label to websites like Twitter and Facebook. It’s not an official title, and there are no set rules or standards on what makes something “Web 2.0”. But, the fact that there are certain shared characteristics between popular websites today versus their counterparts from only a few years ago gives the “Web 2.0” moniker some credible intellectual weight; and the fact that there will be significant investment in a new generation of web companies lends special commercial weight as to why we need to come up with a good conception of “Web 2.0” and a good vision for what comes after (Web 3.0).

So, I thought I would get on my soapbox here and list out three drivers which I believe will define what “Web 3.0” will look like, and I’d love to hear if anyone else has any thoughts.

  1. A flight to quality as users start struggling with ways to organize and process all the information the “Web 2.0” revolution provided.
  2. The development of new web technologies/applications which can utilize the full power of the billions of internet-connected devices that will come online by 2015.
  3. Browser improvement will continue and enable new and more compelling web applications.

I. Quality over quantity

In my mind, the most striking change in the Web has been the evolution of its primary role. Whereas “Web 1.0” was oriented around providing information to users, generally speaking, “Web 2.0” has been centered around user empowerment, both in terms of content creation (blogs, Youtube) and information sharing (social networks). Now, you no longer have to be the editor of the New York Times to have a voice – you can edit a Wikipedia page or upload a YouTube video or post up your thoughts on a blog. Similarly, you no longer have to be at the right cocktail parties to have a powerful network, you can find like-minded individuals over Twitter or LinkedIn or Facebook.

The result of this has been a massive explosion of the amount of information and content available for people and companies to use. While I believe this has generally been a good thing, its led to a situation where more and more users are being overwhelmed with information. As with the evolution of most markets, the first stage of the Web was simply about getting more – more information, more connections, more users, and more speed. This is all well and good when most companies/users are starving for information and connections, but as the demand for pure quantity dries up, the attention will eventually focus on quality.
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While there will always be people trying to set up the next Facebook or the next Twitter (and a small percentage of them will be successful), I strongly believe the smart money will be on the folks who can take the flood of information now available and milk that into something more useful, whether it be for targeting ads or simply with helping people who feel they are “drinking from a fire hose”. There’s a reason Google and Facebook invest so much in resources to build ads which are targeted at the user’s specific interests and needs. And, I feel that the next wave of Web startups will be more than simply tacking on “social” and “online” to an existing application. It will require developing applications that can actually process the wide array of information into manageable and useful chunks.

II. Mo’ devices, mo’ money

image A big difference between how the internet was used 10 years ago and how it is used today is the rise in the number of devices which can access the internet. This has been led by the rise of new smartphones, gaming consoles, and set-top-boxes. Even cameras have been released with the ability to access the internet (as evidenced by Sony’s Cybershot G3). While those of us in the US think of the internet as mainly a computer-driven phenomena, in much of the developing world and in places like Japan and Korea, computer access to the internet pales in comparison to access through mobile phones.

The result? Many of these interfaces to the internet are still somewhat clumsy, as they were built to mimic PC type access on a device which is definitely not the PC. While work by folks at Apple and at Google (with the iPhone and Android browsers) and at shops like Opera (with Opera Mini) and Skyfire have smoothed some of the rougher edges, there is only so far you can go with mimicking a computer experience on a device that lacks the memory/processing power limitations and screen size of a larger PC.

This isn’t to say that I think the web browsing experience on an iPhone or some other smartphone is bad – I actually am incredibly impressed by how well the PC browsing experience transferred to the mobile phone and believe that web developers should not be forced to make completely separate web pages for separate devices. But, I do believe that the real potential of these new internet-ready devices lies in what makes those individual devices unique. Instead of more attempts to copy the desktop browsing experience, I’d like to see more websites use the iPhone’s GPS to give location-specific content, or use the accelerometer to control a web game. I want to see social networking sites use a gaming console’s owner’s latest scores or screenshots. I want to see cameras use the web to overlay the latest Flickr comments on the pictures you’ve taken or to do augmented reality. I want to see set-top boxes seamlessly mix television content with information from the web. To me, the true potential of having 15 billion internet-connected devices is not 15 billion PC-like devices, but 15 billion devices each with its own features and capabilities.

III. Browser power

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While the Facebooks and Twitters of the world get (and deserve) a lot of credit for driving the Web 2.0 wave of innovation, a lot of that credit actually belongs to the web standards/browser development pioneers who made these innovations possible. Web applications ranging from office staples like Gmail and Google Docs would have been impossible without new browser technologies like AJAX and more powerful Javascript engines like Chrome’s V8, Webkit’s JavascriptCore, and Mozilla’s SpiderMonkey. Applications like YouTube and Picnik and Photoshop.com depend greatly on Adobe’s Flash product working well with browsers, and so, in many ways, it is web browser technology that is the limiting factor in the development of new web applications.

Is it any wonder, then, that Google, who views web applications as a big piece of its quest for web domination, created a free browser (Chrome) and two web-capable operating systems (ChromeOS and Android), and is investigating ways for web applications to access the full processing power of the computer (Native Client)? The result of Google’s pushes as well as the internet ecosystem’s efforts has been a steady improvement in web browser capability and a strong push on the new HTML5 standard.

So, what does this all mean for the shape of “Web 3.0”? It means that, over the next few years, we are going to see web applications dramatically improve in quality and functionality, making them more and more credible as disruptive innovations to the software industry. While it would be a mistake to interpret this trend, as some zealots do, as a sign that “web applications will replace all desktop software”, it does mean that we should expect to see a dramatic boost in the number and types of web applications, as well as the number of users.

Conclusion

I’ll admit – I kind of cheated. Instead of giving a single coherent vision of what the next wave of Web innovation will look like, I hedged my bets by outlining where I see major technology trends will take the industry. But, in the same way that “Web 2.0” wasn’t a monolithic entity (Facebook, WordPress, and Gmail have some commonalities, but you’d be hard pressed to say they’re just different variants of the same thing), I don’t think “Web 3.0” will be either. Or, maybe all the innovations will be mobile-phone-specific, context-sensitive, super powerful web applications…

(Image credit) (Image credit – PhD comics) (Image credit – mobile phone) (Image credit – Browser wars)

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The Blackberry’s Big O

imageI’m talking about Opera, the web browser.

Why speak of Opera when I’ve made it quite clear that I’m a big fan of Mozilla’s foxy open-source browser? The reason is that web browsers on mobile phones tend to suck.

  1. They suck because they are capable of very little. The little pages that you see on most mobile phone screens is stripped of animations, Flash, most Javascript effects, etc — neutering some websites and rendering all but the websites with custom mobile versions as hideous blobs of letters.
  2. They suck because they have horrible User Interfaces. An application does not have to have an intuitive interface like the one on iPhone to have a work-able user interface. The way that the user interface on the Blackberry browsers is designed, however, is the exact opposite of work-able. The clunky interface makes it very difficult to navigate larger web pages. The browser also makes no attempt to auto-rescale websites and sizes, or to auto-detect what user interface mode makes the most sense.
  3. They suck because they look and feel nothing like the browser on a computer. This may seem like a nit-picky point, but it lies at the heart of the problem with the mobile browser — it’s supposed to be modeled off software which we are all very familiar with, but it ends up falling short by not making a good effort to emulate, but by focusing more on the device’s limitations (limited screen-size and bandwidth) rather than the device’s potential (emulation to simulate most of the features from a desktop browser).

Opera Mini is Opera’s attempt to solve all three of these problems (hat tip: A. Ow). Opera Mini is a mini-browser Java app which speeds up the browsing experience by fetching all web-pages through a proxy server which performs on-the-fly calculations to rescale webpages and determine the best way for the user to start browsing the page. This is fed back to your phone, making the download faster and allowing the browsing experience to be smoother. Unlike the default mobile browser, Opera Mini attempts to strip down web pages as little as possible, oftentimes preserving the look and feel of the website (the Opera Mini demo shows what sites will look like in Opera Mini) including some Javascript and CSS.

I would strongly encourage people who either use the Internet on their Blackberries a lot or who want to but can’t stand the default Blackberry browser to download this.

On the part of Opera, this is quite a good business ploy — not only because this may mean they can one day capture the mobile browser market, but because I was so impressed with Opera Mini, I actually downloaded and tried the Opera browser for my laptop.

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