Citizen’s arrest

→  May 19th, 2008  →  Blog

Fact 1: We are facing tough economic times. Fact 2: When people are facing tough economic times they look for other sources of income. Fact 3: Police tips are a source of additional income. Conclusion: We are probably seeing an increase in police tips right now. The New York Times has a fascinating article about [...]

Bank Financial Statements are Toilet Paper

→  April 12th, 2008  →  Blog

I’ve posted before about my skepticism towards financial statements in general. This problem is compounded when dealing with financial reports from financial services companies, making them about as useful as toilet paper in times of financial turmoil (except that toilet paper is softer — which makes these financial reports even less useful than toilet paper [...]

Credibility Problem

→  April 5th, 2008  →  Blog

By now, most people have heard about the crisis which befell Wall Street firm Bear Stearns, which suffered from what was essentially a bank run as a result of doubts about its ability to weather the credit crisis. The result was a dramatic loss of shareholder value — Bear Stearns’s stock price plummeted from around [...]

What do Eliot Spitzer and the Credit Crisis have in Common?

→  March 24th, 2008  →  Blog

I don’t necessarily agree with everything in the article, but it has a lot of good points and a killer opening (Hat tip: L. Xu): Putting together everything we’ve learned over the past 10 days about high finance in Manhattan, one thing is clear: If Eliot Spitzer had saved all the money he apparently paid [...]

The Britney-conomy

→  February 6th, 2008  →  Blog

How can you quantify the “social impact” of a single individual? For instance, how much of an impact does Britney Spears have on “society”? (And, yes, those and other quotes that you see in this post are meant to convey vast depths of sarcasm). An economist could argue that Britney’s worth to society would be [...]

The War in Iraq Revisited

→  December 22nd, 2007  →  Blog

I noted before that the best and most objective means to consider if President Bush’s troop surge is to look at how the market is viewing Iraqi war bonds. If Iraqi government bond prices go up, it means the market (which is motivated by something higher than ideological sentiment and politics — money) believes that [...]

Make Money off of the Uninsured

→  December 17th, 2007  →  Blog

How much do the uninsured cost the American healthcare system? This is a question with great practical relevance, as without a clear understanding of the health needs of the uninsured and the cost of providing care for those needs, it’s impossible to make a policy which successfully addresses the issues facing them. Now, I personally [...]

Ten People (Fictional and Real) that I’d Love to Meet

→  November 4th, 2007  →  Blog

Just for kicks (feel free, of course, to use this as a meme), but people who I’d love to meet and have a candid discussion with: Hannibal – Quite possibly the most brilliant tactician in all of history, Hannibal boldly did what was considered impossible (led an army on foot over the Alps), massacred armies [...]

Anxious Complexity

→  October 27th, 2007  →  Blog

How do you think the economy has been going the past couple of years? David Brooks and Marginal Revolution note that despite the fact that US economic growth has been fairly strong in recent years (ignoring the current credit market crisis) and that US income inequality is not only comparable to the reputedly more egalitarian [...]

Marriage Prediction Market

→  October 22nd, 2007  →  Blog

File this under the list of things which are probably practical but also somewhat offensive and not easily implementable but fun to discuss anyways — marriage futures. Prediction markets allow the application of market forces to make general predictions. Take the example of the Bush v. Kerry election — InTrade allowed individuals to buy and [...]