CTLs

One of the most challenging things about the shift from science to consulting, or, for that matter, a shift from one field to any other field, is dealing with jargon. What’s especially jarring is trying to learn new meanings for acronyms that I already learned different meanings for.

Case in point: at my firm, consultants with MBAs who’ve proven themselves and are on track towards promotion are called Case Team Leaders — signifying their emerging role as workstream leaders in our case teams. Seeing as consultants love their TLAs (three letter acronyms), Case Team Leaders are of course called CTLs.

On the other hand, in immunology, where I spent a reasonable chunk of my scientific efforts, CTL typically refers to cytotoxic lymphocytes. These cells are oftentimes called killer T-cells, because of their role in seeking out and destroying cells which have been taken over by viruses or cancer.

And, even though the only thing remotely similar about the two different CTLs is a propensity to kill things that don’t quite fit, it still takes a reasonable amount of effort for me not to laugh when I hear that acronym being used to describe my supervisors.

Yes, I am totally cool, aren’t I?

The Problem with Consultant Speak…

Is that nobody knows what you’re saying because the words don’t quite mean what they’re supposed to in everyday speech. And of course, the perfect illustration of this comes from Dilbert:

‘Tis the season for jolly snowmen!

And none can be jollier than some Calvin and Hobbes snowmen! (Hat tip: T.       Chan)

My favorite of the pack:

Happy holidays to everyone!

The War in Iraq Revisited

I noted before that the best and most objective means to consider if President Bush’s troop surge is to look at how the market is viewing Iraqi war bonds. If Iraqi government bond prices go up, it means the market (which is motivated by something higher than ideological sentiment and politics — money) believes that the surge is working and, hence, the Iraqi government stands a greater chance of paying off its debt to investors. If the bond prices go down, it means the market is losing faith in the Iraqi government’s ability to pay off its debt and is thus an objective sign that the war in Iraq is going poorly.

My previous post cited a paper by Michael Greenstone who noted that Iraqi bond prices fell ~40% following the surge, suggesting that the surge wasn’t working.

In recent days, however, those bond prices have gone up (source: Bloomberg’s):

While the war in Iraq has dragged Bush’s approval ratings lower, his policies in Iraq have turned around investor opinion on Iraqi debentures. The addition of 28,000 troops in the first half of the year has reduced terrorist attacks in the country by 55 percent, the U.S. embassy in Iraq said on Nov. 18.

“We’ve had a shift in sentiment,” said Gorky Urquieta, who oversees $14 billion of emerging-market debt at ING Investment Management in The Hague. ING started buying the securities last month, and is now among the biggest holders along with San Mateo, California-based Franklin Templeton Investments and Baltimore- based T. Rowe Price Group Inc., data compiled by Bloomberg show. “There’s optimism the surge is starting to pay off,” he said.

Greater security from the troop surge, a promise by Moqtada al Sadr to cease attacks, and a rise in oil prices seems to all be promising signs for the future of Iraq.

On the other hand, we all need to remember that bond prices aren’t just driven by the ability to pay, but also by the return on other investments — in recent days given the widespread belief that the global economy will enter a recession, its not surprising that investors view Iraq as relatively less unstable — it doesn’t necessarily mean they think its stable.

"Cluttered"

While I always intend to, I’ve never been one to successfully keep a clean desk — not at home, not at school, and not even at the office. The neat-freaks out there (e.g. my parents) would argue this is a sign of laziness. The mess leads to disorganization and chaos which prevents me from being productive — or so they say.

In my defense:

1. Author of Freakonomics and all-around brilliant guy Steve Levitt’s office is in horrific shape, something I’m sure leads him to being brilliant (although I suppose one could argue that his messiness may be holding him back from attaining his true level of brilliance…).
2. Eric Abrahamson and David Freedman, in their book, A Perfect Mess: the Hidden Benefits of Disorder, argue that “neatness is overrated, costs money, wastes time and quashes creativity.” (source, hat tip: S. Wang)

I think Abrahamson and Freedman have a very valid point that there is a huge difference between “clutter” and “disorganization”. The former is harmless; the latter is what should worry people. As long as the clutter doesn’t lead to disorganization (e.g. not being able to find something critical), there’s no reason that a messy desk should be a problem.

Of course, the world doesn’t see things that way. Plus, it’s possible that your desk is at the point where its more than just cluttered, its actually disorganized. So, how to best get re-organized:

1. Always put wallet, keys, blackberry, and miscellaneous “pocket stuff” in the same place. This has done wonders in making sure I never misplace or worry about losing the things I keep in my pockets. Because one of my key items is my Blackberry (which I usually charge via USB), my designated space is slightly to the left of where I usually put my work laptop, which is great if I need to quickly check something on the device.
2. Put away extra pens and pencils. I can’t tell you how many random pens and pencils I just somehow accumulate. Storing those away has gone a great distance towards making my desk look neater and feel neater — as instead of reaching for 12 random spots on my desk looking for writing implements, I now look in one central jar for a few specific writing tools.
3. Use two scratch notepads. I make and receive a large number of emails and phone calls on a daily basis. Keeping them all straight with my todo list and with the notes I take at meetings had been a nightmare, especially as I had 5 notepads — which didn’t have any clearly separated roles. I have now switched to a system of primarily using 2 notepads. One is taken with me wherever I go: it’s where I take substantive notes on meetings and phone calls. The other stays at my desk and is used to handle my todo list and to write down numbers and email addresses and URLs. The former is used on an as-needed basis (e.g. whenever there’s a meeting). The latter is updated whenever I return to my desk. This means I have one master notepad controlling what I have to do on a given day and allowing me to quickly track down phone numbers and emails, and a separate pad which lets me track down substantive material. All the other notepads? Scratch paper.
4. Digitize everything and use a desktop search engine like Google Desktop. Paper is clutter. Paper is difficult to search. Paper is so 1990s. The more that can be digitized; the more than can be put on your computer, the (a) less paper you need to deal with/organize, (b) the more portable your information is, and (c) the easier it is to quickly search what you have.
5. Use your walls. Do you have something you look at pretty often? Put it on your wall. It’s the fastest and easiest way to get something off your desk but still in quick sight and readily accessible. I have our office monthly calendar, a quick how-to guide for our phone system’s more advanced features, the professional development roadmap, and a company-distributed PowerPoint frequently used features/tips list on my cubicle wall. It keeps my working area on my desk clean (hence helping my organization) but still keeps things readily accessible.

I’ve always been doing #4 and 5, but only recently started #1-3. The result? A better sense of my priorities, a desk that looks neater, and never misplacing my keys or wallet or Blackberry. Success!

Make Money off of the Uninsured

How much do the uninsured cost the American healthcare system? This is a question with great practical relevance, as without a clear understanding of the health needs of the uninsured and the cost of providing care for those needs, it’s impossible to make a policy which successfully addresses the issues facing them.

Now, I personally was under the impression that the uninsured pose a major burden to the healthcare system. After all, we’re talking about a fairly large number of individuals who cannot afford health care (and hence need to be subsidized by the American taxpayer). Much to my surprise, the blog Healthcare Economist quotes from a paper from the Journal of Health Economics that finds that the uninsured in net might not actually be a burden on doctors’ wallets at all (hat tip: A. Phan)

The majority of physicians actually make money, on net on their uninsured patients…12-14% of physicians found their uninsured patients patients more than twice as profitable as their insured patients; that is the net payments from the uninsured were more than twice the expected payments from the insured patients.

The reason? Apparently (although, as a consultant, I shouldn’t be surprised by this), insured patients are able to extract bargain prices for medical equipment/drug suppliers as a result of insurance companies being able to bargain for prices. Uninsured patients, on the other hand, have to pay the full list price, because they lack the scale (or, in other words, the bargaining power) to negotiate lower prices.

But, even more interesting, is that if the higher prices are ignored, the study concluded that

Even our most conservative estimates suggest that uncompensated care amounts to only 0.8% of revenues, or at most $3.2 billion nationally [Ben's note: (a) the report shows that most of this cost comes not from care that doctors hand out for free but by nonpayment and (b) this is TINY compared to total health spending, and even smaller compared to US GDP].

This is interesting, because while it is known that the standard statistics cited about the uninsured also count those who choose to forgo insurance or those who, although unable to pay for large expenses, are able to pay for smaller ones, there’s usually some level of controversy over the ability of uninsured patients to pay. This finding suggests that there is a reasonable capacity to pay amongst the uninsured. This isn’t a blanket statement that can be made, and this is certainly not claiming that individuals without insurance can pay for chemotherapy or heart surgery, but it’s a caution that we don’t necessarily have to jump to a single payor-universal health care form of coverage. We just need to find a way to get more people covered (kind of like my proposal).

Furthermore, this will hopefully shed more doubt on claims by individuals believing that the uninsured are a horrible burden — an insurmountable problem that can’t be solved.

It Could Happen to You Too…

It’s holiday season — a time for good cheer. But remember, it’s okay to have fun, but always take the necessary precautions when you’re with the people that matter most to you.

Because, it could happen to you too.

This message brought to you by Ben’s fictitious public service announcements. (Hat tip: V. Liu)

Love in the 21st Century

I love xkcd, highly nerdy, but very wise in its own way:

Beware of Flirtatious Robots

I’ve always thought that people who surf online chatrooms looking for electronic romance were losers. That’s reason #1 not to surf random online chatrooms. Reason #204 is apparently that AI chat programs will steal your identity by flirting with you. From CNet:

A program that can mimic online flirtation and then extract personal information from its unsuspecting conversation partners is making the rounds in Russian chat forums, according to security software firm PC Tools.

The artificial intelligence of CyberLover’s automated chats is good enough that victims have a tough time distinguishing the “bot” from a real potential suitor, PC Tools said. The software can work quickly too, establishing up to 10 relationships in 30 minutes, PC Tools said. It compiles a report on every person it meets complete with name, contact information, and photos.

“As a tool that can be used by hackers to conduct identity fraud, CyberLover demonstrates an unprecedented level of social engineering,” PC Tools senior malware analyst Sergei Shevchenko said in a statement.

Among CyberLover’s creepy features is its ability to offer a range of different profiles from “romantic lover” to “sexual predator.” It can also lead victims to a “personal” Web site, which could be used to deliver malware, PC Tools said.

Although the program is currently targeting Russian Web sites, PC Tools is urging people in chat rooms and social networks elsewhere to be on the alert for such attacks. Their recommendations amount to just good sense in general, such as avoiding giving out personal information and using an alias when chatting online. The software company believes that CyberLover’s creators plan to make it available worldwide in February.

Robot chatters are just one type of social-engineering attack that uses trickery rather than a software flaw to access victim’s valuable information. Such attacks have been on the rise and are predicted to continue to grow.

Step 1: Break our hearts. Step 2: Depending on which Sci-Fi genre you like the best either the Terminators take over, we all get plugged into the Matrix, or we’ll live awesome lives like in The Jetsons.

In all honesty, I’d love to see how the programmers coded this.

The Truth About Ben

You think my about page is the truth? YOU CAN’T HANDLE THE TRUTH!
Great gems from http://blog.esaba.com/projects/facts/index.php?n=Ben&g=male:

• If, by some incredible space-time paradox, Ben would ever fight himself, he’d win. Period.
• We all know the magic word is please. As in the sentence, “Please don’t kill me.” Too bad Ben doesn’t believe in magic.
• Ben’s calendar goes straight from March 31st to April 2nd; no one fools Ben.
• Mr. T once defeated Ben in a game of Tic-Tac-Toe. In retaliation, Ben invented racism.
• Ben doesn’t wear a watch. He decides what time it is.
• Ben is the only person to ever win a staring contest against Ray Charles and Stevie Wonder at the same time.
• Ben can win at solitaire with only 18 cards.
• Ben got a perfect score on his SAT’s, simply by writing Ben for every answer.
• Ben doesn’t have a bank account. He just tells the bank how much he needs.
• Ben uses a night light. Not because Ben is afraid of the dark, but the dark is afraid of Ben.
• Ben knows the last digit of pi.
• When Ben goes to out to eat, he orders a whole chicken, but he only eats its soul.
• Once a cobra bit Ben’s leg. After five days of excruciating pain, the cobra died.
• Ben invented black. In fact, he invented the entire spectrum of visible light. Except pink. Tom Cruise invented pink.
• It is scientifically impossible for Ben to have had a mortal father. The most popular theory is that he went back in time and fathered himself.
• M.C. Hammer learned the hard way that Ben can touch this.
• When Arnold says the line “I’ll be back” in the first Terminator movie it is implied that he is going to ask Ben for help.
• Ben destroyed the periodic table, because Ben only recognizes the element of surprise.
• The saddest moment for children is not when they learn Santa Claus isn’t real, it’s when they learns Ben is.
• The pen is mightier than the sword, but only if the pen is held by Ben.
• Ben can delete the Recycling Bin.

And of course, the best

Most people know that Descarte said, “I think, therefore I am.” What most people don’t know is that that quote continues, “…afraid of Ben.”